Why Almost Every Roofer Has 5 Stars on Google (and How to Tell Who's Actually Better)

The Airbnb problem, now in roofing

Researchers at Boston University and the University of Southern California studied Airbnb ratings and found that nearly 95% of listings averaged 4.5 or 5 stars. Their paper's title sums it up: “Where Every Stay is Above Average.”^[1] When everyone is above average, the stars stop telling you much.

We looked at every roofer on Google Maps in the Orlando area and found the same thing.

If you're choosing between a 4.8 and a 4.9, you're choosing between two roofers the stars can't tell apart. Google's stars clearly aren't built to tell you who's better.

Why roofer ratings bunch up at the top

• Happy customers get asked. Roofers often ask for a review right after a job goes well. Google's rules say businesses can't ask only happy customers or discourage negative reviews,^[2] but from the outside you can't see who was asked and who wasn't.
• Most homeowners never leave a review. A new roof is a once-in-20-years purchase. A few dozen reviews can stand in for hundreds of jobs, and the people who write them aren't a random sample.
• Reviews arrive in waves. In the reviews we sampled, 152 of the 486 Orlando-area roofers had weeks with an unusual spike of new reviews. A spike isn't proof of anything wrong; it can be an honest review drive after a busy storm season. But a burst of five-star reviews in one week says less than a steady stream over years.
• A fresh start is easy. A business with a bad record can open under a new name or new listing and start over at zero reviews.

Rules help. Since 2024, the Federal Trade Commission has banned fake reviews, buying reviews, and hiding negative ones.^[3] But even when every review is honest, a 4.9 average still can't tell you which 4.9 roofer to hire.

What a star rating can't tell you

Stars measure how happy reviewers felt. They don't measure the things that cost homeowners the most when they go wrong:

• Is the roofer's state license active, and has the licensing board ever disciplined it?
• Does the roofer pull permits, and how much permitted roofing work has it actually done?
• How long has the business been around?
• Does it respond when a customer complains?

One example: 11 Orlando-area roofers we matched to Florida licenses have a disciplinary action on record with the state.^[4] Seven of them have 4.7 stars or higher on Google, and three have a perfect 5.0. Nothing in their star rating would warn you.

Same stars, very different roofers

169 Orlando-area roofers have a perfect 5.0 on Google. Their RooferRated Scores range from 47 to 98. The stars are identical. The public records behind them aren't.

Take the 75 roofers with 4.9 stars or more and at least 100 reviews, the group that looks best on Google. Six of them pulled 50 or more roofing permits in the City of Orlando over the last two years. Fourteen had none we could match.^[5] City permits only cover work inside Orlando city limits, so a roofer who works mostly in the suburbs can show few permits. We never count that against a roofer. But a long permit record is real, checkable proof of work that stars can't give you.

How RooferRated tells good from great

• We grade on roofing's real curve. Our reputation points run from 3.5★ (none) to 5.0★ (full), because that's where roofers actually land. A 4.8 and a 5.0 aren't the same, and our score shows it.
• A long track record beats a short perfect one. Small review counts are blended toward an average rating, so 20 perfect reviews can't outrank 500 near-perfect ones.
• We add public records. State license status and discipline, and roofing permits from city records, where they're published.
• We look at the pattern, not just the average. Recent reviews count more than old ones, reviews posted in unusual spikes count at half weight, and we check whether the roofer replies to negative reviews.
• Nobody pays. Roofers can't pay to change their score or their ranking.

Every rule is published on how we rate roofers. Missing records are never counted against a roofer.

How to check a roofer yourself

1. Look up the license with your state's licensing board. In Florida, that's the DBPR license search.^[4]
2. Ask for the permit number before work starts, and check it with your city or county.
3. Read the 1- to 3-star reviews and the roofer's replies. How a roofer handles a complaint tells you more than another five-star review.
4. Sort reviews by newest. A great rating from years ago doesn't help if recent customers are unhappy.
5. Get everything in writing: scope, materials, price, payment schedule, and warranty.

Google's stars can tell you a roofer isn't terrible. They can't tell you who's best. That's the job we built RooferRated to do.